Every points program will tell you its points are valuable. None of them will tell you the honest average, because the honest average is boring and makes the sign-up bonus look smaller. Here is how to do the math yourself in under a minute.

The only formula that matters

Take the cash price of what you are booking, subtract any taxes and fees you still have to pay in cash, then divide by the number of points required. Multiply by 100 to get cents per point. That number, not a valuation chart from a blog, is what your points were worth on that specific redemption.

Know your baseline

Transferable currencies like Amex Membership Rewards or Chase Ultimate Rewards are typically worth a little over one cent each in solid, unspectacular redemptions. Hotel points usually run lower, often half a cent to a cent. Airline miles swing the hardest, from under a cent on a bad economy redemption to multiple cents on a well-timed business class seat.

Why the chart on every blog is optimistic

Published valuations are usually built from a handful of best-case business and first class redemptions, because that is the content that gets clicks. Your everyday domestic economy flight or a Tuesday-night hotel stay will almost never hit those numbers, and that is fine. It just means you should not let a headline number talk you into a bad redemption.

A real example, worked out

Say a hotel room costs $300 cash and 40,000 points instead, with no extra taxes owed on the points booking. That is $300 divided by 40,000, times 100 -- 0.75 cents per point. Compare that number to your baseline for that program, not to a number you remember from a blog headline, and decide from there.

The same program can swing wildly

One redemption from a program might value your points at 2 cents each, and the next might value them at 0.4 cents. There is no single honest number for what a Chase point is worth or what a Delta mile is worth -- there is only what a specific redemption is worth, calculated fresh every time.

Best play

Do the math before you redeem, not after. If a redemption values your points below your personal baseline, pay cash and save the points for something that actually clears the bar.